The recent few weeks, when we talk in the broader perspective of contemporary Indian politico-democratic system, India’s easternmost metropolis of Guwahati has become the new Tinseltown of power politics and have allegedly become the “talk of the Nation”. For us to lay out the foundation of the entire history behind this mass-enigma, we’ll need our readers to go back to Mid-June when a Maharashtrian leader accompanying roughly 30 odd sitting MLAs had encompassed the borders of Gujarat state in the western India, only to fly to Guwahati for an extended political “vacation” at a 5-star Hotel on the city’s outskirts.
It was Mr. Eknath Shinde, one of the most influential and powerful leaders from the hinterlands of Maharashtra politics and now a rebel- Shiv Sena MLA, who did arrive here at Guwahati’s Radisson Blu Hotel along with his cavalcade of three dozen MLAs, and thereby unofficially eclipsed the saga for an alleged “resort politics” away from the political camps of Mumbai. This episode took the incumbent Chief minister of Maharashtra Mr. Uddhav Thackrey by surprise and panic both at the same time. Initially, the other two alliance partners of the Shiv sena led – Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government viz. INC and the NCP took their time to react on the ongoing matters pertaining to the rebels within Shiv sena block, and certainly tried to downplay it citing it as an internal feud within the Sena factions and refrained from commenting on it. Now Mr. Shinde’s move to shift to a hotel in Guwahati can be attributed to a well thought-out strategy for the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena. Firstly, due to 2500 kms of distance between Maharashtra and Assam, the Shinde faction of Sena rebels become immune and virtually unreachable for the political harbingers of CM Uddhav Thackrey to have an active influence over the rebel at Guwahati. The Second reason to select Guwahati can be attributed to having a more conducive and politically aligned Government of Himanta Biswa Sarma at the helm of affairs of Assam and virtually all of the North-eastern India. This level of unmatched political freedom to act in a manner what Mr. Eknath Shinde had been envisaging, was served to him at a silver platter at Guwahati. And it certainly benefited him. It soon became a media-frenzy extravaganza in the midst of this high-level tension back home for the Maharashtrian Chief minister. He was certainly at a fix when more and more MLAs who were with the Thackreys, were seen taking the route from the borders of Maharashtra, via Surat to sit on chartered planes and fly to Guwahati instead. Uddhav’s camp was depleting each passing day. For perspective, as on 28 June the rebels had officially more than two-thirds of the elected Shiv Sena MLAs at Guwahati. This relinquished the character of the government at Mumbai as the Uddhav Thackrey government was then in a minority.
The reason that Mr. Shinde and his rebel MLAs have cited for their deflection from the Thackrey group is manifold. At first, the rebels claim that it was an “unholy alliance” to form a post poll government with ideologically different political parties of Congress and the NCP. Secondly, in the 2019 Maharashtra elections, it was the BJP and Shiv Sena that had a pre-poll alliance and even the voters had mandated the alliance of BJP-Shiv Sena having strong ethno-political congeniality between the two parties over Hindutva and its ethos, for governance. So, what had quintessentially happened was that Uddhav Thackrey sought for 2.5 years tenure for the Chief Ministership from the remaining 2.5 years after BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, as Chief minister. This was a key issue of contention between the two parties that had actually won the election pretty comfortably otherwise. Several reports attest to a common domain i.e., hunger for more power on part of the then Shiv Sena stalwarts, that this pre-poll alliance was dodged and after a strained to-and-fro political muscling between various parties, finally the sun rose over the Sena-INC-NCP alliance, ushering in the first Chief minister ever from the Thackrey legacy as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
Coming back to the ongoing affairs at Guwahati, 16 of the rebels were issued a disqualification notice by the Deputy Speaker of Maharashtra Assembly, which was challenged in the Supreme Court’s Vacation Bench on the 27th of June. The Apex court favouring the Eknath Shinde faction has extended the notice timeline till the 12th of July. It is also to be noted that the houses and properties of the rebel MLAs have been vandalised at multiple locations in Mumbai and across Maharashtra by protesters of the Uddhav Thackrey faction. Several derogatory commentaries were also passed on publicly by a certain Member of Parliament of the Shiv Sena, who is a close aid of Mr. Uddhav Thackrey. The Central government had already taken cognisance of the security aspects of the rebel MLAs and have granted Y-plus security to more than a dozen of them who are at Guwahati. This was also amplified in the address to the supreme Court’s Bench that was hearing the plea on the 27th of June. It ordered the incumbent government (of Uddhav Thackrey) to ensure full protection to all the rebels and make a conducive environment for them to head back Mumbai. The Governor who was absent from office due to Covid, has returned back on the 28th of June and certainly he held the cards to political stability in Maharashtra, by conducting a floor test at the Assembly, as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the possibility of a vertical split in the Shiv Sena party has overwhelmed Maharashtra politics, of late. But, can the Shinde faction pronounce itself as the original Balasaheb’s Shiv Sena, and sideline the de facto heir of the Thackrey’s, only time will tell.
Meanwhile the BJP’s Fadnavis had been holding high level meetings with Amit Shah at Delhi about the current developments in his state and he certainly would have required to make space for the rebels of Shiv Sena to form a stable government at the earliest. The NCP and the INC were also holding their horses to themselves at the “maha moment of uncertainty”, and anticipated upon a floor test wherein relying solely upon sheer luck that several rebel Shiv Sena MLAs would turn against Eknath Shinde and favour the MVA government instead. Well, the NCP-INC-Shiv Sena’s presumption seemed very hypothetical, as on the 29th June, the Supreme Court stalled the disqualification of the Shinde faction initiated by the Deputy Speaker till the 12th of July. This made possible to open up a new window and a bredth of fresh air for Mr. Shinde and his camp in Guwahati. It was this event that they now could finally head back to Maharashtra after a week. As the political landscape of Mumbai and rest of Maharastra was still at a boiling point of sorts, the rebels flew to Goa instead, so as to not find themselves at the receiving end of the angry Shiv Sena supporters backing Uddhav Thackrey, especially in Mumbai. Not to mention that 30th June had already been chosen for conducting the “Floor test” for the incumbent Uddhav Government by the Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari.
The Shinde Camp visited the Kamakhya Temple at Guwahati before leaving later at the day on 29th June to Goa on a special Spicejet Flight from Guwahati. To the surprise of all political pundits, there came the massive news break that Uddhav Thackrey had resigned from the post of Chief Minister, a day before the de facto “Trust vote” that was to be conducted on the floor of the assembly. This act singlehandedly unlocked the gates for a BJP-Shinde Sena government in Maharashtra.
Moving beyond resort politics of Surat, Guwahati and Goa, certainly there remains larger unanswered questions than ever before. Questions like – What would happen to the political identity of the Shiv Sena as a party from here on? Will the Thackreys be able to save their own party ? Will Eknath Shinde claim the Shiv Sena party symbol ? Will the MPs of Shiv Sena side with Eknath Shinde faction? Only time will tell, what actually shall unravel!
- Author – Banraj Kalita
(This is a developing story, so this article space will be updated as and when there are newer developments in this regard.)